The first Labour Autumn Budget for nearly two decades takes place at the end of next month and rumours are already circulating about what painful choices Chancellor Rachel Reeves will make to address the £22 billion blackhole in the country’s public finances.
This figure is the amount of public overspend for this year alone. So, although the Government have faced mounting criticism after cutting Winter Fuel Payments for all but the poorest pensioners, they say there will be further tough decisions to come on tax, spending, and welfare.
The Labour party conference this week was a good place to get some predictions about what the new Government is planning and how this might impact on autistic people and people with a learning disability. Also what families and the professionals that work with them should be braced for in the coming months.
Here’s a breakdown of potential policy and Budget announcements:
Disability welfare spending (excluding devolved spending) is forecast to account for 12.2% of total welfare spending in 2023-24 (up from 11.5% in 2022-23). This includes benefits intended to contribute towards the extra costs associated with disability, namely disability living allowance (DLA), personal independence payment (PIP) and attendance allowance (AA).
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast this spending will increase to £58.1 billion in 2028-29. That would represent around 4% of total public spending, and 2% of GDP.
As a result, it was no surprise that in his first conference speech as Prime Minster, Sir Keir Starmer said turning around Britain’s fortunes will be “hard” and that he plans to get the welfare bill down by tackling long-term sickness and supporting people back to work.
The Conservative government had proposed reforming the personal independence payment (PIP), such as through replacing the benefit with one-off grants or vouchers. There are also plans to restrict the health element of universal credit through reforming the work capability assessment. Labour is yet to confirm whether it will continue with these plans and charities say this is making disabled people feel anxious and that they haven’t been listened to.
Average awards across the different disability benefits varies, with PIP recipients receiving an average of £6,900 each in 2023-24, DLA claimants £5,520 each, and AA claimants £4,820 each.
There was a lot of talk at the Labour party conference about the upcoming NHS 10 year plan, which was announced after the damning report from Lord Darzi on current NHS performance. Although no details have yet been announced, Health Secretary Wes Streeting did hint in his speech that major reform is on its way.
He said: “Without action on prevention, the NHS will be overwhelmed. Without reform to services, we’ll end up putting in more cash for poorer results. That’s the choice. Reform or die. We choose reform.”
He also reiterated Keir Starmer’s plan to get the 2.8 million people out of work due to ill health back to health by sending “crack teams of top clinicians to hospitals” across the country to roll out reforms – developed by surgeons – to treat more patients and cut waiting lists. The first twenty hospitals targeted by these teams will be in areas with the highest numbers of people off work sick.
Recent analysis from the NHS Confederation and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) shows that reintegrating between half and three-quarters of people who have dropped out of the workforce for reasons of ill health since 2020 could deliver an estimated £109-177 billion boost to the UK’s GDP (2-3% in 2029) and unlock £35-57 billion in fiscal revenue over the next five years.
Yet, charities say that such measures need to go hand in hand with wider and targeted policy efforts to reduce economic inactivity in these areas. Also, it shouldn’t be used as an excuse for slashing vital financial support for disabled people.
Wes Streeting also said that the NHS cannot be fixed without fixing the the crisis in social care, adding that they can’t fix social care without the people who work in it. He confirmed that the Government intends to deliver its New Deal for Care Professionals: a Fair Pay Agreement, to improve pay and conditions and give staff the status and respect they deserve. This will be the first step towards building a National Care Service.
The Health Foundation said that while it is encouraging to hear the need for a fair pay agreement for social care staff, the absence of a wider plan for reforming social care funding and entitlements remains a significant gap in government policy. It added that after signals in the summer about setting up a Royal Commission, progress on this was notable by its absence from this week’s conference.
Further details are also still awaited on the range of employment rights changes that the government plans to implement – from action on zero-hour contracts to new day one rights for employees. It is hoped that these will published by Budget day at the latest.
A new report from disability charity Scope was launched at the Labour Conference, which showed that the cost of living with a disability has increased again. The findings of last year’s report put this amount at £975 per month, and the latest findings show an increase of £35, bringing the amount to £1,010.
The charity said that the updated Disability Price Tag is expected to have a devastating impact on disabled people’s standard of living at a time when the rising cost of living has already pushed disabled people beyond breaking point.
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) also said that the government’s talk of tough decisions has created a fear of what is to come in the Budget, and a dread that this winter will be as bad, if not worse, than the last. It added that families can’t wait for economic growth before they feel their situation improve. By failing to repair the foundations, like housing, welfare and public services, that underpin people’s lives the Government also risks failing on its own terms to deliver a resilient economy.
At the Labour Party Conference, JFR joined forces with the Trussell Trust to also call on Labour to fulfil their manifesto commitment to end mass dependence on emergency food parcels. Currently, 77% of low-income households with a person with a learning disability are in food insecurity. In addition, 7% of people referred to food banks in the Trussell Trust network reported that they have a learning disability compared to 2% in wider UK population.
Maddy Rose, Mencap’s Policy Specialist, said: “At Mencap, we know that many disabled households continue to face high levels of hardship and debt, alongside increased energy and food costs. These are made worse by existing financial inequalities such as fewer employment opportunities, increased risk of financial exclusion, and inadequate benefit levels.
“To prevent divisions in living standards becoming further ingrained in our society, every political party needs to commit to providing a proper support plan for disabled households that recognises those extra costs.”
Despite Labour members at the party’s conference voting in favour of a non-binding motion calling for ministers to reverse their cut to the Winter Fuel Allowance, Sir Keir Starmer says he is pushing on with his plans.
According to Disability Rights UK, these upcoming changes to the scheme will fundamentally alter its identity, shifting it from a universal benefit targeted at older people (in recognition of older people’ higher needs for energy use) to a means-tested payment available only to those receiving Pension Credit. Ten million people will lose the payment as a result.
It said that the High Level Equality Analysis from the Department for Work and Pensions found that 1.6 million disabled people – 70% of disabled people currently receiving the Winter Fuel Payment – will lose it under the new rules. These people face intersectional disadvantage: being older and being disabled are both associated with higher needs for heating, which are not accounted for under the new system.
“The Winter Fuel Payment was designed as a universal benefit for a reason – to mitigate the higher home energy costs older people face and prevent them from being disadvantaged financially due to their age, which is a protected characteristic under the Equality Act 2010. The Disability Poverty Campaign Group is extremely concerned that such a major change to policy was pushed through so quickly, without adequate scrutiny. Neither the Treasury nor the Department for Work and Pensions has conducted an Equality Impact Assessment of the change,” it added.
Having already pledged not to increase tax on “working people” it seems unlikely that Government will announce any changes to income tax, employee national insurance and VAT. Instead, the Chancellor is likely looking at options on employer national insurance, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and various duties, including that on fuel.
