Eight in 10 councils expected to exceed adult social care budgets by 2025

Eight in 10 (81%) councils are on course to overspend adult social care budgets by March 2025, according to a new survey of local authorities.

Overspending has continued to rise in recent years, from 63% in 2022/23 to 72% in 2023/24, reaching the highest level on record this financial year.

Autumn Budget announcements will add further strain on adult social care providers

The survey results are based on responses from 131 of the 154 councils in England with social care responsibilities. The responses were recorded before the Autumn Budget, between 12th September and 9th October.

The Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (Adass), who conducted the survey, say this bleak picture of financial pressures facing local authorities does not therefore account for the further strain expected from the increases to both the National Living Wage and National Insurance employer contributions, which were both announced in the Budget.

Care England, which represents adult social care providers, voiced concerns last week that these hikes could cause care homes to close and as a result, the Liberal Democrats urged the government to ensure social care providers are exempt from the rise in National Insurance.

Jackie O’Sullivan, Executive Director of Strategy and Influence at Mencap, says the £600 million cash injection for the sector announced in the Budget will be ‘eaten up’ by these increases, with OBR estimates suggesting the sector needs double the amount of funding offered.

O’Sullivan added that the survey is “another worrying picture of the strain councils are under to provide social care to some of the most vulnerable people in our communities.”

“Things are going to get worse before they get better”

The survey also found that more councils are being required to make in-year savings, with more than a third (35%) of councils being asked to do so, up from just under a fifth (19%) in 2022.

Adass said planned savings for the 2025/26 financial year are estimated to have risen to £1.4 billion from just over £900 million the previous year.

The report warned: “In this context, it will be even harder for councils to make the investment needed in workforce, prevention and unpaid carers, all of which are crucial to improving health and social care in the longer-term.”

Melanie Williams, President of Adass, says the adult social care sector has been pushed to its limit over the last few years, and the financial situation for councils is now “at breaking point”.

While she welcomed the government’s commitment to a multi-year funding settlement for councils and a fair pay agreement for care workers, she warns that in the short-term, things are going to get worse before they get better.

People with a learning disability who rely on social care will “feel the impact most”

“In our Spring Survey we described the financial situation in adult social care to be ‘as bad as it has been in recent history’.

“This report highlights the ongoing and intensifying pressures facing adult social care, which are also directly impacted by the broader challenges facing local government and the NHS,” Williams said.

“Councils have a legal duty to provide care for our disabled and older people, but the only way we can do this will be by going further and further into debt,” she added.

Jackie O’Sullivan says this new survey makes it clear that local authorities don’t have the funding they need, and care providers and charities don’t either.

“Social care is about people, and more care workers, in desperate need of higher pay already, will end up on the minimum wage as a result,” she said. “It is simply unsustainable and ultimately it will be people with a learning disability who rely on social care who will feel the impact most. This cannot be right, and we urge the Government to work with the social care sector on funding a solution.”

Lauren Nicolle

Lauren is a qualified journalist who writes primarily across the health and social care sectors. She is passionate about exposing the injustices faced by people with a learning disability, with a particular focus on equal access to healthcare.

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